Sparknet scenario conference - papersSparknet held an online conference on future scenarios for household energy in Southern and Eastern Africa between 27 September and 7 October 2004. The conference papers are available through this page. An introduction to the concept of scenario analysis in Sparknet may be found below, together with the original conference programme.
Proceedings  Scenario analysis - Proceedings (686 KB) - this document includes all the country and theme papers below, as well as a conference summary.
Conference Papers - Countries Scenario analysis - Kenya (193 KB)
Scenario analysis - South Africa (167 KB)
Scenario analysis - Zimbabwe (115 KB)
Scenario analysis - Tanzania (127 KB)
Scenario analysis - Zambia (116 KB)
Scenario analysis - Uganda (145 KB)
Scenario analysis - Mozambique (135 KB)
Conference Papers - Themes Scenario analysis - Forestry (68 KB)
Scenario analysis - Gender (80 KB)
Scenario analysis - Health (72 KB)
Scenarios - an introduction Scenario analysis is simply a way of exploring realistic futures and predicting, based on our knowledge and experience how things could look in the future, how things could develop. As with all predictions we are likely to get it not entirely correct but the exercise is useful to stimulate debate on key issues. Scenario building is a process providing a structure for discussion and debate on what is could happen within a timeframe of the next ten to fifteen years. We will explore how things could change and how these changes are likely to impact on access to household energy in each country and across the Sparknet region. From these discussions, we hope to be able to make policy recommendations for poverty alleviation through identifying the key areas where policy action needs to take place. The intention is not to produce definitive studies but to stimulate relevant policy dialogue and serve as a basis for further research. Using management jargon we are looking here for 'blue sky thinking'. To do this we need to know the status quo (work-package 2, the country reports, and country overviews - which are now available on the Sparknet web site) and also to have identified influential organisations and projects and key actors who will shape the future of household energy provision (work-package 3, the draft version also available online).
 External influences, such as changes in economic growth and levels of regional cooperation, are circumstances over which we have limited control. By identifying what policies might be effective under varying best and worst scenarios we have a good basis for debating potential policy actions which are pro-poverty alleviation, take into account our three themes - health, gender and natural resources / forestry - and are realistic under a broad range of external circumstances. As defined in the original Sparknet proposal, the intention is to develop a number of scenarios based on levels of economic prosperity and regional cooperation. The five possible scenarios - A to E - are shown in the 'box matrix' figure alongside. We believe it is sufficient to deal only with scenario A (business as usual), C (best case economy and co-operation), and D (worst case economy and co-operation). The other two are variations of these main scenarios. Both variables relate strongly to globalisation and market developments. This is the reason for including regional co-operation, since the Sparknet proposal was submitted to a funding window, which explored impacts of globalisation on energy poverty.
Because of the limited time/funding resources, these analyses are based - to a certain extent - on a subjective interpretation (the opinion of well-informed researchers, organisations and individuals in each country) of the impact of key variables and on findings of earlier studies (if available). It is focused mainly, but not exclusively on the issues identified by the three Northern partners on Health, Gender and Forestry (these papers are available online from the www.sparknet.info website.)
The scenario development follows the following process: - The development of peer reviewed scenario analyses for each country including 'business as usual' and alternatives based on levels of 'economic prosperity' and of 'regional co-operation'. This current document is a working version of the scenario.
- An international e-conference (through the Internet) will be held based on the scenarios for each country. The provisional date for this conference is the end of September, over a 2-week period.
- Publishing of conference proceedings from the e-conference on scenarios
The scenario analysis will lead naturally to an analysis of what do we think will happen and what do we want to see happening (or how best we can deal with it if it does happen) in each country and the region, and leads directly into work-package 5 (how to get from one to the other - ie. policy recommendations).
Sign up for the scenarios conference here. Dates and programme - Scenarios E-Conference Dates and programme are to be confirmed! Please sign up and we will inform you of any changes. Day 1: Monday September 27 2004 - Welcome & country scenarios - Welcome, aims, programme, outputs, technical issues
- Presentation of Scenario Document 1, identifying base case (business as usual), worst case, and best case scenarios from:
- ITDG - East Africa (ITDG-EA) - Kenya
- Women and Gender Studies Department, Makerere University, Uganda (WGS) - Uganda
- Tanzania Traditional Energy Development and Environment Organisation (TaTEDO) - Tanzania
- Questions / clarifications / additions
Day 2: Tuesday September 28 2004 - Country scenarios continued - Summary day 1
- Presentation of Scenario Document 1, identifying base case (business as usual), worst case, and best case scenarios from:
- ITDG - Southern Africa (ITDG-SA) - Mozambique
- Scientific and Industrial Research and Development Centre Energy Technology Institute (SIRDC) - Zimbabwe
- Energy and Environmental Concerns for Zambia (EECZ) - Zambia
- Rural Area Power Solutions (Pty) Ltd - South Africa
Day 3: Wednesday September 29 2004 - health - Summary day 2
- Presentation of health scenario issues paper - revised if appropriate
- Country specific observations
- Questions /clarifications / additions
Day 4: Thursday September 30 2004 - gender - Summary day 3
- Presentation of gender scenario issues paper - revised if appropriate
- Country specific observations
- Questions /clarifications / additions
Day 5: Friday October 1 2004 - forestry - Summary day 4
- Presentation of forestry scenario issues paper - revised if appropriate
- Country specific observations
- Questions /clarifications / additions
WEEKEND Day 6: Monday October 4 2004 - Country policy options - where do we go from here? - Summary day 5
- Summary week 1
- Presentation of Scenario Document 2 : policy options coming out of the discussions - prepared and 'presented' by each Southern Member (1 page, 7 countries)
- Questions /clarifications / additions
Day 7: Tuesday October 5 2004 - Discussion on country policy options and actions - Summary day 6
- Discussion on the policy options and possible actions at country level to come out of these discussions
- Discussion on the policy options and possible actions at regional level to come out of these discussions?
- Are these findings at country level and regional level compatible?
Day 8: Wednesday October 5 2004 - Theme policy options and actions - where do we go from here? - Summary day 7
- Review of key questions raised at country level which have not yet been addressed
- Policy options, by theme, coming out of the discussions: presented by each Northern specialist (1 page, 3 themes)
- Questions /clarifications / additions
Day 9: Thursday October 7 2004 - Discussion on theme policy options and actions - Summary day 8
- Discussion on policy options and actions at international / global level on health, gender and forestry
Day 10: Friday October 8 2004 - Conclusions and recommendations - Summary week 1-2
- Review of key theme questions raised which have not yet been addressed
- Formulation of recommendations of agreed policy action
- Discussion on conclusions and recommendations
- Close and future actions
|
